Jeremy Ettlinger

Calls, puts & mise en place

Appel & Mise

Vol. ISaturday, October 17, 2026 · 54° & light drizzle on the UWSThe daily, for Jeremy Ettlinger
BTC$81,479-0.4%ETH$2,431-0.6%

The lede

Claude reveals ECDSA curve origins

Anthropic · made the Sunday

For twenty-six years the NIST elliptic curves that secure most of the internet have rested on seed values the NSA handed over without explanation, which is the single most-cited reason to suspect a backdoor; the one insider who knew died in 2023 and a standing bounty went unclaimed. An internal Anthropic research model, given the problem cold, took under half an hour: rather than hunt for the hash everyone assumed was behind the seeds, it guessed the numbers were output from a weak PRNG of the era, noticed that the top bit of every 32-bit word was zero across four seeds — a 1-in-5,810 coincidence and the fingerprint of `lrand48` — brute-forced the hidden state for the binary curves, and recovered it for the prime curves with LLL lattice reduction. Trace the recovered states back through `srand48` and you get Unix timestamps from 1997 and 1998: somebody ran a program in a loop until the curve came out valid, and P-256 was candidate 1,842. The post ships Python that reproduces the published values, and is honest about the loose ends — B-163 and most of the base points are still unexplained, and the program skipped some perfectly valid candidates for reasons nobody knows. Nothing here breaks ECDSA. What it does is turn the field's central conspiracy hypothesis into a much duller and more plausible story about a guy, a timestamp, and a while loop, and it is the clearest public example yet of a model doing the kind of work that had defeated people who wanted the answer badly.

AI & Agents

Anthropic · made the Sunday

How the Claude Code team does code review

Claude writes about 90% of Claude Code's own code, merged PRs more than doubled from June to September, and the revert rate fell by over 40% — this is the seven-layer system that made those numbers compatible, written out in enough detail to copy. The parts worth stealing even at a smaller shop: a risk classifier that reads the change rather than the author and sets zero, one or two required human approvals; a `REVIEW.md` per code owner that caps nits and demands file-and-line evidence; multiple agents hunting bugs in parallel with a separate panel voting on which findings are worth posting; and past incident PRs turned into a daily eval set so every reviewer change has to score better than the last one. The failure mode is the honest and useful bit — one PR went more than fifty review rounds overnight before its author pulled the plug, and git blame showed 59% of what the reviewer kept flagging had been there since the first pass, because an agent author answers a nit with another commit instead of a shrug. Round caps, diff-only re-review and no-repeat-findings took mean rounds from 2.08 to 1.32 and five-plus-round PRs from 8.9% to 1.5%.

Mercor

A benchmark map of the US economy

Mercor tagged 29 agentic benchmarks against the Labor Department's O*NET taxonomy — 923 occupations, 18,797 tasks — and found that 924 tasks clear even a five-prompt coverage bar, six of 22 job families have no coverage at all, and roughly 90% of American working hours go to work no benchmark measures. The bias is not random: exposed tasks are about 6x likelier to be covered than unexposed ones, a given occupation's most important tasks 6–10x likelier than its least, and coverage concentrates where the wage bill is even after controlling for exposure, so we have excellent measurements of lawyers and software engineers and nearly none of legal secretaries or court clerks. Useful as a corrective if you are trying to reason about AI's economic reach from eval scores, and more useful still as a reminder that an average over a benchmark suite is an average over whatever someone found cheap to grade.

Engineering & Leadership

LeadDev

The AI exploit gap is engineering's problem now

The survey is vendor-commissioned and Michael Hill says so, but the shape of the finding survives the discount: among security leaders at 500-plus-person companies, 54% admit their org knowingly leaves high or critical vulnerabilities unpatched at least sometimes, and the reasons they give are engineering reasons — operational disruption, revenue work winning the argument, patches that are hard to test. The split by size is the part to sit with, since big companies stall on disruption and roadmap priority while smaller ones stall on not being able to test the fix. His closing question is the one actually worth taking into a staff meeting: can anyone on your team say how long a critical patch takes to reach production, and who is allowed to jump it ahead of the roadmap? If not, the gap is not in your tooling.

Web & Product Craft

Jake Archibald · made the Sunday

JPEG XL vs AVIF for web use cases

Archibald built a benchmark harness, matched encodes at equal SSIMULACRA2 scores instead of equal quality settings, and measured size, encode time, memory and per-browser decode time across four encoders — then published the numbers that contradict the enthusiasm. AVIF wins almost everywhere that matters for a site: 15–25% smaller than the best JPEG XL at default effort on photos, 30–90% smaller on screenshots and illustrations, dramatically better with transparency, and 2–3x faster to decode. JPEG XL keeps two real wins — true lossless, where it beats lossless WebP by 9–17%, and lossless transcoding of JPEGs you already have, which shaves 9–20% off them for free. The practical line is to default to AVIF at 4:4:4 and the highest effort you can stomach, reach for JPEG XL via jixel when a particular image comes out fat, and re-run the test yourself because both codecs are moving.

Cloudflare · made the Sunday

Deploy with Void

Void is Cloudflare's open-source answer to the awkward middle of a Vite app: you import `void/db` or `void/ai` and the import itself declares the resource, so dev gets a local database and `void deploy` provisions D1 and AI Gateway in production without you writing the wiring. Nuxt is a supported framework alongside React Router, SvelteKit, TanStack Start and Astro — the framework keeps routing and rendering while Void takes migrations, resource APIs, auth and deploys. The third piece is the one to watch if you ever hand a side project to someone else: a self-hostable Void Platform on Workers for Platforms that gives a team a shared deploy environment on your own Cloudflare account.

New York & the Table

West Side Rag

Central Park Great Lawn to close for the season two weeks earlier than normal for restoration

The Great Lawn shuts Monday rather than in early November, because its ballfields are the last phase of a park-wide upgrade the Conservancy started in 2024 and the Turf Care team wants the extra fortnight to let new infields set before spring 2027. The interesting bit is what they are optimizing for: not a prettier surface but a more durable one that drains and recovers faster, so 26 fields spend fewer days closed after a storm. A maintenance-window argument, in other words, made in grass.

West Side Rag · made the Sunday

Horse-drawn carriages in Central Park 'coming to an end,' mayor says

Mayor Mamdani threw his support on Tuesday behind a bill making it illegal to operate a horse-drawn carriage in the city from June 2028, and with more than half the 51-member Council formally behind it and a full vote already calendared for October 22, the thing Bloomberg, de Blasio and Adams all failed to do looks likely to pass. It is named Romanch's Law, for the 18-year-old tourist killed in a carriage accident this summer. The unresolved questions are the ones the bill text apparently does not answer: where roughly 160 horses go, and what happens to the drivers, whose union is against it.

Diversions

Aftermath · made the Sunday

Why aren't there any major video game studios in NYC?

Recorded live at Town Hall for the first New York Games Week, with NYU Game Center's Naomi Clark and Sam Barlow of Her Story and Immortality, and the answer they converge on is a production-shape argument rather than a cost-of-living one. Film work here is freelance and piecemeal, which the city is built for; games need three-year office jobs and funding that survives a project selling nothing, which it isn't — and Barlow's team, working in Unreal, simply could not find experienced developers locally, so they hired remote. Clark and Gita Jackson add the structural half: San Francisco and Seattle courted studios, while a city with an arts economy this large never needed to. Mostly audio, worth the walk.

Loose Change

The Guardian · made the Sunday

Cyril Hilsum obituary

He was given a defence brief in the late 1960s — replace the cathode-ray tubes in radar sets with something flat — and when he convened the country's liquid crystal researchers he realized only one man in the room, George Gray of Hull, actually understood the material, so he put him under contract on the spot. The mixture the three of them landed on by 1972 was stable in heat and sunlight, which is why it ended up in watches, then calculators, then every laptop and phone, earning the Ministry of Defence over £100m in royalties on patents it kept. He also helped build the Gunn diode that powers police speed guns, which inconvenienced him as a fast driver; invented a device for locating snipers by their bullet trajectories; beat Alan Turing at chess in Teddington in the late 1940s; insisted on hiring equal numbers of men and women at GEC in the 1980s; and went to Churchill's post-war meetings with his wife specifically to heckle. Born to street traders in Stepney, reading fluently at three, dead at 101.

The Guardian

Tim Jeal obituary

Jeal is the reason we know that "Dr Livingstone, I presume?" was almost certainly never said: the line appears nowhere in Stanley's own diary, which is missing the two pages covering that day, and nowhere in Livingstone's journal either — it reads like something sold to the New York Herald after the fact. That was the method for fifty years, going at the archive until the received version of a man came apart. In his twenties he established that Livingstone converted exactly one person in thirty years and never found the source of the Nile, and his book remains the standard life; later he argued Stanley was less colonial collaborator than exaggerating abolitionist, and that Baden-Powell was neither the racist nor the militarist of legend but was a repressed homosexual. He grew up between a baronet's daughter and a pacifist vegetarian mystic who met over the shop floor at Heal's, and was sent at seven to a school the boys called Boys' Hell. Dead at 81.

The Back Page

The Guardian / WhoScored · made the Sunday

Chelsea are the Premier League's most fun team but is it sustainable?

Fifteen scored and thirteen conceded in six games is a neutral's dream and a season ticket holder's cardiology appointment, and Harry Paterson has the numbers that say the fun half is borrowed: 15 goals from 8.4 xG, eight of them from chances under 0.13 xG, five against Bournemouth off an xG of 0.75. No league clean sheet since January, 22 games ago. The mechanism is Alonso's, the same high-commitment structure that won Leverkusen a Bundesliga — both wing-backs, both attacking midfielders and João Pedro all pushed on, which leaves a back three and a midfield pair covering ground they cannot cover, exactly what Brentford dismantled 3-0. The hopeful note is the Bournemouth game, where Chelsea defended in a 4-4-2 with Acheampong tucked in as a right-back and Caicedo back winning seven duels, and looked for the first time like a side with a plan for the turnover.

The Guardian

Savaged by Simon Jordan – and thanks to the algorithm I want to be savaged again

Ronay gets mildly beasted in a two-minute TalkSport clip he has not fully listened to, learns about it from a colleague who monitors such things as an act of love, and turns the whole thing into the best available description of how football discourse now works: a machine that manufactures rage because rage is what the feed pays for, and in which being savaged is a form of distribution. The specific disagreement — whether a stadium filled with schoolchildren satisfies a punishment for Nazi salutes — is almost beside the point by the end. Funny in the way that leaves a mark, and quietly useful to anyone who builds things that live in a feed.

Around town

Sun Oct 18 · 10:00am–6:00pm

Open House New York Weekend

About 300 sites citywide

The 24th year of the one weekend the city unlocks the rooms you normally only read about — bus depots, cathedral undercrofts, infrastructure nobody gives tours of. Most sites are free drop-ins, a few are ticketed, and Sunday is the last day of it.

casual

Mon Oct 19 · 8:10pm

Sweet Rush, with Paweł Szajda in person

Film Forum, 209 W Houston St, West Village

Wajda's 2009 Tatarak, the one where he lets the film stop being a film and become a woman talking to the camera about her own dying. Szajda — who made his Polish debut in it opposite Krystyna Janda — stays after for a conversation with David Schwartz. Eighteen dollars, twelve if you're a member.

casual

Sat Oct 24 · 9:00am–6:00pm

Deal Flow: NYC's First VC Hackathon

Betaworks, Meatpacking District

Teams of four get nine hours to build something that solves a problem a venture fund actually has — sourcing, diligence memos, LP reporting, pipeline plumbing — then demo to six judges who work at the funds. Free, food all day, and a rare chance to see the internals of a business that usually only shows you its outputs.

professional

Tue Oct 27 · 6:00pm

Future of AI Infrastructure

535 Fifth Ave, Midtown

A free evening on the layer under the models, with a systems research engineer from Nvidia who does data curation for vision-language-action models, a GPU-compute recruiter who knows which companies are actually hiring for this, and the founder of an enterprise AI governance company. The recruiter in the lineup is the tell that the hallway here is worth as much as the panel.

professional

Thu Oct 29 · 9:00am

LLMday NYC

Microsoft Experience Center, Midtown

A free full day on building with language models, which at this point is a low-cost way to calibrate against what other New York teams are actually shipping rather than what the launch posts claim. Speakers were not yet listed as of Saturday, so register and watch the page.

professional

Quote of the day

“An agent's approval never counts as a human's.”

— Addy Osmani, Morgan Westlee Lunt and Qing Wang, on Claude Code's review rules

On this day

October 17 is a day for schedules breaking. In 1989, at 5:04pm Pacific, the Loma Prieta earthquake hit as Game 3 of the Bay Bridge World Series was about to start at Candlestick Park — the broadcast cut to static with the stadium full, and the series did not resume for ten days. In 1933 Albert Einstein came ashore in New York having decided not to go back to Germany, and spent the remaining twenty-two years of his life in Princeton.

The puzzle corner

The Mini · Wordle · Connections

Two of today's pieces are about the same move: stop arguing about the output and go read the instrument that produced it — a 1990s random number generator, or a season's worth of expected goals.